Research seminars
Like so many things, research is best when it's shared. That is why the Geoeconomics Group is organizing research seminars where our researchers present their ongoing work to each other. The goal of the seminars is to inform the fellow members of new results, theoretical insights or methodological approaches, and to get valuable feedback before submitting the paper to a journal or taking the stage at a conference. The seminars take place on the second Thursday of each month.
During the seminar, the authors present their paper (+-15') and listen to the comments and feedback (+-45') of their colleagues. Draft papers are distributed one week in advance, so all attendees have the time to prepare questions and suggestions.
To maintain a small group and a high quality in discussion, participation in the research seminars is on invitation only. Are you a researcher or a PhD candidate in the domain of geoeconomics, economic statecraft or international political economy? Get in touch by mail and we'll invite you to take part in our discussions.
The seminars are made possible with the help of the Royal Higher Institute for Defence by means of project HFM 22/01.
Upcoming seminars
Thursday 11 September 2025
Abstract - Robin Schindowski will present two of his most recent Bruegel working papers on the development of critical technologies in China, the US, and the EU. The papers discuss the evolution of innovation in key technology sectors across China, the US, and the EU, and analyse which firms are taking a leading role in frontier innovation on critical technologies.
Development of critical technologies in China
Robin Schindowski (Bruegel)
Past seminars
2025
Abstract - This paper addresses the question: How do political narratives influence military expenditures? While existing research tends to rely on objective metrics, such as geographic proximity, to assess threats—a key determinant of military spending—these approaches often overlook the subjective perceptions that shape policy decisions. Previous work has not fully considered how narratives, as collective expressions of significant events, contribute to the perception of threat and, consequently, to defense budgets. To address this gap, this paper introduces a theoretical framework that incorporates narrative analysis into the economic modeling of military expenditures. Building on Becker’s sentiment analysis, which connects public sentiment to spending behavior, this study extends the analysis to include different forms of narratives, such as public opinion, government rhetoric, and political discourse. The study employs desk research to review and synthesize existing theories, followed by a discussion of potential methodologies for incorporating narrative data into economic models by leveraging recent statistical techniques from the Natural Language Processing (NLP) subfield in computer science to quantify these narratives. While empirical testing is outside the scope of this study, the aim is to lay down the groundwork for future research to empirically validate the proposed framework. By advancing the idea that narratives can serve as a useful yet underutilized variable in the assessment of military spending, this article aims to open new avenues for research and policy analysis in defense economics, opinion research, and foreign policy.
Narratives as a determinant for assessing military expenditure
Thursday 12 December 2024
CDT Vincent Joassin (Royal Military Academy)
Abstract - In a globalized world, geopolitical tensions can have a negative impact on the business operations of firms. Such tensions can pose an even bigger risk to multinational corporations (MNC), as they have their assets spread over multiple countries. An MNC could, for example, become the victim of economic statecraft, or could see the value chains between its subsidiaries disrupted by trade restrictions or tariffs. In this paper, we aim to investigate whether corporate concerns about geopolitical developments have increased over time and whether multinational corporations worry more than their domestic or regional peers. We develop a new index to examine to what extent publicly listed firms are concerned with geopolitical risks by measuring how often they mention terms linked to geopolitics in their annual reports. The quantitative, text-based approach for the indicator is inspired by other indexes, such as the geopolitical risk index of Caldara and Iacoviello (2022). We use our own index to investigate whether publicly listed firms have increasingly worried about geopolitics throughout the last 13 years and to verify if multinational corporations do indeed worry more about geopolitical developments. The results of this study contribute to the academic debate on the impact of heightened geopolitical tensions on MNCs and to the growing literature on geopolitical risk monitoring.
Thursday 13 February 2025
Perceived Geopolitical Risk in Multinational Corporations
Nick Houttekier (Royal Military Academy)
De-risking European trade with China: Implications for Belgium
Thursday 13 March 2025
Dennis Essers and Kristel Buysse (National Bank of Belgium)
Abstract - In an era of intense geopolitical competition, concerns about the impact of foreign investments in strategic sectors of the European economy have led policymakers to review European investment screening mechanisms (ISMs). In doing so, European institutions and member states have to find a balance between security and economics, maintaining a favorable environment for potential investors while simultaneously protecting specific sectors that they deem important for European and national security. We argue that the existing structure of state-firm relations decisively shapes the institutional configuration of European ISMs at the national level. We identify two ideal-typical patterns of state-firm relations: Public governance and private governance ecosystems. We hypothesize that variations in domestic state-firm relations decisively shape the institutional configurations of European ISMs, and, more broadly, how European governments and firms navigate the trade-off between openness and protection of strategic assets.
Thursday 10 April 2025
Floor Doppen (University of Antwerp)
Abstract - The past decennia have been characterized by a trajectory towards an increasingly intense reliance on the ocean and its resources. As will be evidenced in this dissertation, attention for the (economic) maritime domain is growing among both academics and policymakers. With the changes in the global economic architecture resulting from globalization, a renewed focus on the salience of the ocean economy for a state’s maritime power is needed. This work therefore examines the dynamics between the ocean economy and maritime power by looking at maritime power through the lens of Global Value Chains (GVC) theory. It does so in particular for the People’s Republic of China (PRC), a state that has explicitly broadcasted its haiyang qiangguo (strong maritime power)-strategy since 2012 (and already paid attention to the maritime economic domain in the context of global value chains (GVCs) since the 2000s). Extensive textual analyses of primary Chinese-language sources are the main methodology utilized in this thesis to analyze the development of policies regarding the Chinese ocean economy. To examine the extent to which these policies have been successfully implemented and have led to tangible growth, this research additionally relies on descriptive statistical data, retrieved from Chinese statistical yearbooks and a range of databases (such as UNCTAD, Orbis, PATSTAT). This work consists of five chapters. The first chapter evidences the applicability of Global Value Chain theory to China’s build-up of its ocean economy in the context of its haiyang qiangguo-strategy. The four chapters thereafter are case studies that specifically focus on one aspect of the policy framework or on the development of one specific sector within China's ocean economy. The dissertation highlights the significance of the maritime domain in International Political Economy, emphasizing that China's maritime power build-up relies heavily on its position within GVCs related to the ocean economy. It also notes that China's strategic focus on upgrading within maritime GVCs spans across its entire ocean economy and has been evident since at least 2012. Finally, the growth in China's global market share in maritime goods and services suggests potential shifts in maritime power dynamics for other leading states.
Read the articles here:
The Ramifications of China’s Maritime Equipment Industry Policies for the EU
The Significance of Global Value Chains in Shaping China’s Maritime Power
Thursday 19 June 2025
Anchoring Ambitions: a Global Value Chain Perspective on China's Maritime Economic Power Development
Anne-Marie Dedene (Vrije Universiteit Brussel)
2024
Friday 8 November 2024
Michelle Haas (Ghent University)
Abstract - Political leaders have frequently referred to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine as a ‘wake-up call for Europe’. This article examines whether Russia’s war against Ukraine truly constituted a transformative moment for European defence and had a harmonizing effect on the defence policies of European states. More specifically, we compile an extensive overview of the changes in the European national defence policies after February 2022. By triangulating expert interviews with document analysis, we assess changes in European defence policies on two dimensions: (1) European states’ perception of the Russian threat and (2) military expenditure. The results of our study indicate that, despite nearly all European states now viewing Russia as a threat, significant differences in threat perception levels persist. Additionally, this 'strategic cacophony' in threat perceptions results in varying military expenditures. The geopolitical shock of the 2022 war in Ukraine, thus, has only led to a very moderate convergence of European states' defence policies.
European Defence Policy Changes after Russia’s 2022 Invasion of Ukraine: a ‘Wake-Up Call’ in Practice?